Winning by Walking... (*see below)

Last year I undertook an exercise to compare Bond’s actual stats (for the 2004 season) to the theoretical stats he would have generated if opponents had walked him every time he stepped into the batters box. This weekend I updated the exercise by looking at his numbers for the 2006 season. Not surprisingly, the numbers are even more compelling; if by compelling you mean that they demonstrate teams can increase their chances of winning by walking Bonds every time he sets foot in the box. (And that is indeed what I do mean by compelling)

Here are his numbers from 2006 according to http://www.baseball-reference.com/:
Games played: 130
Plate Appearances: 493 (AB + BB + HBP +SF)
Batting Average: .270
Hits: Singles: 50 – scored 9 times
Doubles: 26 – scored 10 times
Triples: 0
Home Runs: 26
RBIs: 77
Runs: 74
Walks: 115 – scored 25 times
HBP: 10 – scored twice

Those numbers give you all the information you need to understand that not only am I not crazy, but that pitchers should start walking Bonds today and never give him another opportunity to inch closer to Hank’s record.My argument is simply this: If the statistics that played out in 2006 are indicative of what one can expect from a SF team with Bonds on it, then pitchers and managers from opposing teams will not only Help Save Baseball by not pitching to Bonds, but they can improve their chances of winning at the same time.In 2006 Bonds stepped into the batter’s box 493 times.
The results were:
26 Home runs
77 RBIs
74 Runs

The questions are:
- How many times Bonds could have been expected to score if he had been walked 493 times?
- How does that compare the actual number of runs he generated during the season?

We start by looking a Bond’s actual productivity during the year. He stepped into the batter’s box 493 times. He ended up on base a total of 195 times, 178 on first. (50 Singles + 115 Walks + 10 HBP + 1 Error + 1 Wild Pitch + 1 Groundout) Starting on first base he would eventually go on to score 38 times. (74 runs - 26 HR - 10 runs scored after hitting a double) He therefore scored while starting at first 21.35% of the time.

Imagine now that rather than pitching to Bonds, he was walked 493 times and ended up on first base. If we take the 21.35% scoring rate from above, Bonds would theoretically score 105 runs after being walked 493 times.

To see how this theoretical 105 run total compares to the actual runs he generated we look at the following: 77 RBIs + 48 Runs = 125 Actual Runs Generated. (The 48 runs comes from subtracting 26 HRs from his 74 Run total because HRs are already counted in RBIs)

The resulting comparison is 105 theoretical runs scored vs. 125 actual runs generated. Therefore, by intentionally walking Bonds, opposing pitchers and managers can expect that the Giants will score 20 fewer runs during the season. The numbers demonstrate that pitchers and managers can choose to Help Save Baseball by walking Bonds without sacrificing wins. Indeed, just the opposite is the case. As I said last year, this is not a perfect solution and by telegraphing the fact that Bonds will be walked, a team gives the Giants some options they might not have had otherwise, but the numbers have held up two years in a row. Of course in some cases teams will have no choice but to try and get him out i.e. bases loaded in a tie game and Bonds up.

Some people have argued that he is walked too much as it is, and last year Jayson Stark even suggested the rules should be changed to limit the use of the Intentional Walk. That may be a valid argument, but the fact of the matter is that, unlike steroids, intentional walks are a legal part of the game and have been used by teams for decades to help facilitate getting to a particular batter or to get themselves out of a particular jam. I would argue that baseball has allowed itself to be put into this jam by letting the most hallowed of its records be assaulted by a synthetic superman. Far be it for me to suggest that pitchers and managers bail Bud Selig out of a problem he allowed to percolate, but if saving the commissioner from himself is the price to be paid by not allowing Bonds to approach Hank’s record I would suggest that is a small price to pay.

More importantly, by not letting Hank’s record fall at the hands of a tainted conqueror, parents and coaches can tell their children & charges, with a straight face, that if they work hard and play by the rules they too may become a real champion. Sure, baseball is only a game, but there was a time when the diamond was a place to learn life lessons as well as baseball skills. In 2007 I can think of worse things for MLB to strive for.

* I updated this on 25 May because I realized I had neglected to include 3 occurrences where Bonds ended up on 1st, once from a forceout where the runner was out at second, a wild pitch and an error. That increased the number of times he ended up on first and lowered his scoring percentage from first from 21.71% to 21.35%. If there are any other first base appearances that I have missed they will only decrease his success rate from first because the number of times he scored from first, 38 is solid. (74 runs - 26 HR -10 scores after a double = 38) (Dates for the doubles are: April 3, 18, 28, June 27, Aug 6, 12, 27, 31 Sept 22 - twice)

(Visit http://www.helpsavebaseball.com/ for shirts and e-mail links to MLB)